Armenia vs. Azerbaijan

1994 - ongoing by 2011

Core issue: Status of Nagorno-Karabakh lies at the heart of the conflict. Nagorno-Karabakh
became a de-facto state but Azerbaijan refuses to accept its sovereignty
and demands the reintegration of the territory under its control.

Type of conflict ending: Conflict ongoing by 2011

The frozen conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan is a result of the Nagorno-Karabakh War,
which ended with a ceasefire in 1994. The war resulted in approximately 25,000 deaths and over
1 million refugees and IDPs in both Armenia and Azerbaijan. The core issue was the status
of Nagorno-Karabakh (NK), a former Soviet Autonomous Oblast. Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh
are closely intertwined - they are both inhabited by ethnic Armenians. Nagorno-Karabakh has navigated between the options on whether or not it wants to be united with Armenia or to be independent.
Its foreign policy, defense and state budget remain closely connected with Armenia. The enclave was
never formally recognized as a sovereign state by any country, including its closest ally Armenia.
Azerbaijan claims Nagorno-Karabakh as part of its territory that is currently occupied by Armenia,
and thus refuses to negotiate with the representatives of Nagorno-Karabakh. The status and therefore
the core issue remain officially unresolved.

The Nagorno-Karabakh War was the culmination of tensions resulting from Soviet policies and the confusion that arose with the fall of the Soviet Union. At the dawn of the Cold War, Karabakh Armenians claimed that Baku was pursuing discriminatory policies against them and attempting to alter the demographics of the region and to erase Armenian cultural heritage from NK. Clashes and pogroms occurred in both Armenia and Azerbaijan, resulting in rising ethnic tensions and an increase of refugees. Relations continued to deteriorate, and following Nagorno-Karabakh's declaration of independence from Azerbaijan, Azerbaijani forces moved to counteract the independence movement.

The war ended in 1994 with a ceasefire (the Bishkek Protocol) agreed upon by Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Nagorno-Karabakh. During the war, the Armenian side captured seven territories surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh in order to create a buffer zone and use it later for negotiating purposes. These areas were previously populated overwhelmingly by Azerbaijanis and Kurds. Apart from the status of NK, the status
of these territories remained also an issue of contestation. The ceasefire established the Line of Contact that separates the forces of Nagorno-Karabakh and Azerbaijan.

Peace talks are held under the aegis of the Minsk Group, a format officially under the umbrella of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe with France, Russia and the United States acting
as co-chairs. The most influential of the three powers is Russia, which acted as Armenia's ally during
the war and continued to sponsor and diplomatically support Armenia. The peace negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan (NK is not part of the negotiations) effectively started in 1995. In 1997 and 1998 the conflict intensified, and tensions rose as violent clashes along the Line of Contact resulted in an increase in the numbers of battle-related deaths. In 1997, the Minsk Group initiated a new peace plan, based on what was called a "package solution", but it was refused by NK. A few months later, a new plan was proposed, based on a "step-by-step" approach, where Armenians would first withdraw from occupied territories and the NK would be demilitarized, and only afterwards would the status of NK be resolved. Strong domestic opposition in Armenia ended these discussions and a new president was elected.
In 1998, the new Armenian president, Robert Kocharian, and Azerbaijani president, Heydar Aliyev, met
in Washington, and discussed the Goble's Plan - a territorial exchange between Armenia and Azerbaijan, enabling them connection via land with their respective enclaves (Armenia with NK and Azerbaijan with Nakhichevan). The peace process was halted by the killing of eight politicians in the Armenian parliament in 1999. The closest attempt to peaceful thawing occurred in 2001, when the presidents of Armenia
and Azerbaijan met in Key West, Florida. Domestic opposition in both countries, however, prevented
the signing of any agreement in the end. The most promising and discussed peace plan remains
the "Madrid Principles", formulated in 2007, and revised in 2009. Until 2011, Armenia and Azerbaijan
could not agree on the sequence of the proposed steps (return of the occupied territories, status of NK, return of IDPs, and other related factors).

Since the start of the conflict, violence has continued to take place across the Line of Contact almost daily, and several deaths on both sides result each year due to ceasefire violations. While Armenia is content with the status quo, Azerbaijan has made numerous threats of using violence to recapture NK.

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