India vs. Pakistan

1949 - ongoing by 2011

Core Issue: Territorial dispute over the region of Kashmir and Jammu

Type of Conflict Ending: Conflict ongoing by 2011

The conflict between India and Pakistan over Kashmir was at its core a territorial dispute over the Jammu territory that began in 1947. Even though the Kashmir region was inhabited by a Muslim population, it was ruled by the Hindu Maharaja. As Kashmir faced a Muslim insurgency backed by Pakistan, the Maharaja chose to sign an Instrument of Accession with India in order to gain Indian military support to protect its territory. Pakistan took action and as a result a war began over the respective land between the two major regional actors Pakistan and India.

The violence was ended through international intervention when the UN created the United Nations Commission for India and Pakistan (UNCIP). In 1948, the Commission requested an immediate ceasefire, the withdrawal of Pakistani forces from the territory and asked for a plebiscite that would determine the future of Kashmir and Jammu. Yet, although the ceasefire was enacted on December 31, the plebiscite has never been implemented. Hence, the First Kashmir conflict ended in a stalemate. Since that war, India has remained under the control of two thirds of the territory, namely Kashmir, Jammu and Ladakh, while the rest is under the rule of Islamabad, namely Azad Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan.

After the first conflict there was no dialogue between Pakistan and India until 1960, when both sides signed the Indus Water Treaty which resolved some disputes over the river in the Kashmir region. At this time Pakistan opened official negotiations with India to try to reach a solution for the Kashmir problem. These talks reached a deadlock only a year later in 1963, as India rejected Pakistan's solution and Pakistan rejected a no-war agreement, as it would have meant acceptance of the ceasefire line as an international border.

In 1965, violence broke out again when Pakistan invaded the Kutch region, crossed the ceasefire line in Kashmir and initiated a rebellion against India. The breakout in the Kutch area was resolved by a bilateral agreement, and pressure from the international community resulted in the Tashkent agreement signed by India and Pakistan. The Tashkent agreement required the establishment of pre-war borders and the restoration of diplomatic relations.

Then, until 1971, there was no outbreak of interstate violence. In 1971, India intervened into the Pakistani Civil War between East and West Pakistan and supported the East Pakistani secessionist movement. The war ended when Bangladesh became independent. A year later, the Simla Agreement was signed by both actors. It established the Line of Control based on the prior ceasefire line and both actors agreed to refuse any third-party involvement, which could have caused massive escalation given the Cold War environment.

After this episode of violence, no further escalation occurred until 1990. During the 1990s relations between the two countries seemed to improve, with many high-level meetings aimed at normalizing relations. Contrary to this, the 1990s were also an era of growing violence along the Line of Control. In February 1999, the Lahore Declaration was signed, normalizing relations between India and Pakistan and addressing the nuclear capacity of both nations. Despite this, numerous clashes took place which resulted in the Kargil War in May of the same year.

In 2001 the Agra Summit failed to bring a new resolution to the Kashmir conflict, however, in 2003, a new ceasefire was established. This was followed in 2004, with an India-Pakistan Joint Press Statement binding the two to peaceful negotiations on Kashmir. This shows positive developments and the potential for peaceful thawing, however, several ceasefire violations at the Line of Control mean that the conflict remains frozen, as the core issue has not been resolved.

Sources

Chaudhuri, R., 2018. "Indian 'Strategic Restraint' Revisited: The Case of the 1965 India-Pakistan War", India Review, 17 (1), 55-75.

Cohen, S.P., 2004. "India, Pakistan and Kashmir", In: Sumit Ganguly (ed.) India as an emerging power, London, Portland, Oregon: Routledge, 36-63.

Cordera, S., 2015. "India's response to the 1971 East Pakistan crisis: Hidden and open reasons for intervention", Journal of Genocide Research, 17 (1), 45-62.

Indian Treaty Series [online], 1965. Available from: http://www.commonlii.org/in/other/treaties/INTSer/1965/8.html [Accessed 15 Nov 2019].

Misra, A., 2007. "An audit of the India-Pakistan peace process", Australian Journal of International Affairs, 61 (4), 506-528.

Tellis, A.J., 2017. Are India-Pakistan Peace Talks Worth a Damn?, Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Vaish, V., 2011. "Negotiating the India-Pakistan conflict in relation to Kashmir", International Journal on World Peace, 28 (3), 53-80.