A new study by Dr. Rob Geist Pinfold, published in Middle East Policy, challenges common misconceptions about the future of Syria following Bashar al-Assad’s downfall. The research critically examines assumptions surrounding the conflict’s key actors, the nature of the regime’s collapse, and the roles of external powers such as Russia, Iran, Israel, and the United States.
Key findings include:
The illusion of a unified opposition: The study dismantles the notion of a singular “rebel” faction, revealing a fractured opposition with conflicting interests, including groups backed by Turkey, the U.S., and local militias.
The limits of military victory: While Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) played a major role in Assad’s ouster, the study argues that its success was as much political as military, aided by external factors and the rapid disintegration of regime forces.
Russia and Iran’s continued presence: Contrary to claims that Assad’s fall marks the end of their influence, the study suggests that both Moscow and Tehran remain deeply entrenched in Syria’s affairs.
The international community’s role: The research urges against disengagement, arguing that external actors—including the U.S. and regional powers—must navigate a delicate balance between stability and intervention.
This study provides a timely and nuanced perspective on post-conflict Syria, warning against oversimplifications in policymaking and advocating for cautious international engagement.