What happens when both the U.S. and Israel shift from preserving stability to pushing for bold change? This study explores how recent conflicts, especially the 2023 Hamas attacks, have transformed Israel into a more aggressive actor and aligned it even closer with the U.S., now under another Trump presidency. As Israel and America embrace a shared revisionist agenda, their partnership could drive major shifts in the Middle East’s balance of power.

How do Russians really feel about using nuclear weapons after the invasion of Ukraine? Despite constant threats from the Kremlin and rising global tensions, support for a nuclear strike against NATO has barely shifted. This study uncovers why public opinion has stayed so stable.

Our newest study finds that geographic proximity significantly influences public support for aiding friendly nations under attack. Using survey experiments in Japan and Czechia, they show that people are more likely to support military and non-military interventions when the conflict is perceived as nearby. While Japanese respondents strongly supported aid to Taiwan, Czech support declined for distant crises. The study highlights that perceived distance—not just actual geography—shapes public opinion, with important implications for international alliances and crisis response planning.

A new study by Dr. Rob Geist Pinfold, Clive Jones, and Anoushiravan Ehteshami, published in Global Policy, examines how Iran and Israel’s long-standing rivalry has driven the Middle East toward an increasingly dangerous cycle of escalation. The research reveals a surprising role reversal: Israel, traditionally a status quo power, has become the region’s leading revisionist force, seeking to reshape the regional order after the October 7 attacks, while Iran is now on the defensive, aiming to preserve its diminishing influence.

This study by Tereza Plíštilová and Zuzana Lizcová explores how German media responded to Israel’s strategic narratives during Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. While narratives linked to Holocaust remembrance were accepted, Israel’s democratic identity and security concerns faced skepticism. Media receptiveness improved when Israel engaged diplomatically, highlighting the role of historical ties and proactive diplomacy in shaping narrative adoption.

This new study by Dr. Rob Geist Pinfold challenges common misconceptions about Syria’s post-Assad landscape, highlighting the complex power dynamics at play. It reveals that the opposition is highly fragmented and that Assad’s fall was as much a political shift as a military defeat. Despite claims of their diminished influence, Russia and Iran remain deeply embedded in Syria. The study warns against oversimplifications in policymaking and advocates for cautious international engagement.

We are happy to present our Annual Review of 2024! The document summarizes all of our highlights from last year, including publications, policy briefs, research grants, events and public outreach.