A new policy analysis by Michal Smetana and Michal Onderco, published in the Journal of Global Security Studies, investigates Russian public support for the use of nuclear weapons following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Using a preregistered survey experiment on a representative sample of the Russian population, the study examines how the war and associated rhetoric have influenced public opinion on using nuclear weapons against NATO countries.
The research addresses concerns that Russian nuclear saber-rattling may have weakened the “nuclear taboo.” Instead, the study reveals a stability in public opinion despite changes in the security environment and elite discourse.
KEY FINDINGS INCLUDE
1) Public support for nuclear use remains stable post-invasion.
Despite Russia’s aggressive nuclear rhetoric and calls for strikes from various elites, the overall level of public approval for using nuclear weapons against NATO has not changed significantly since before the invasion.
2) “Atomic aversion” persists amid normalization and deterrence.
The enduring stability in attitudes is attributed to two opposing forces: normalization of the idea of nuclear use in Russian society and deterrence through heightened concerns about NATO’s retaliation. These countervailing dynamics may have neutralized each other’s effects.
3) Scenarios involving NATO and Ukraine elicit similar public responses.
Russian citizens disapproved of nuclear weapon use at similar levels in hypothetical conflicts involving Crimea (Ukraine) and the Baltics (NATO), suggesting consistent public sentiment regardless of the adversary.