A new policy analysis by Rob Geist Pinfold, published in Survival: Global Politics and Strategy, examines how the U.S.–Israel relationship has shifted from one of cautious restraint to active enablement, particularly under the Trump administration. The article explores how changing domestic politics, evolving regional goals, and recent conflicts, especially the 2023 Hamas attacks, have aligned U.S. and Israeli revisionist agendas in ways that may reshape the Middle East.
The research highlights how U.S. foreign policy has increasingly supported Israel’s more aggressive strategies, weakening past norms of restraint and challenging long-held assumptions about regional stability.
KEY FINDINGS INCLUDE
1) Trump’s policy coherence deepened Israel’s shift toward unilateralism.
Through the Abraham Accords and other major concessions, the Trump administration empowered Israel to pursue regional normalization without compromising on Palestinian sovereignty. This reinforced Israel’s move away from peace-for-land frameworks toward more unilateral actions.
2) The U.S. has become an enabler of Israeli revisionism.
Under both Trump and Biden, U.S. support, rhetorical and material, has emboldened Israeli efforts to reshape the region, particularly in Gaza and the West Bank. The Trump administration’s second term shows signs of abandoning even symbolic constraints.
3) Iran's role in the region has fundamentally changed.
As Israel expands military operations and territorial ambitions, Iran has moved from a revisionist actor to a relatively status quo one, seeking stability to protect its position. This shift creates a new geopolitical dynamic in which Israel, not Iran, now drives instability.